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NFL Plays

Today’s NFL Plays

Week 9 · Updated

700 plays analyzed · 114 market types covered

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Match any selected game, any selected team, and the time window together. Search and bet type also apply.

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Sunday 12–3 PM is the 1 PM window; 3–7 PM is the 4 PM window. Primetime is 7 PM+ on any day. Other kickoffs: Any time.

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How our signals work

Inputs vary by sport and market. Model estimates and additional intel are shown separately.

NFL Top Plays require at least 5 percentage points of model edge and 5% estimated return at the observed price; other Plays require at least 2.5 points and 2% respectively. Alternate lines, touchdown, kicker, defense and other elevated-volatility markets are excluded from Top Plays. These are model estimates, not guarantees. Player status and exact book/line context remain in Details.

Core model signals

Opportunity & role
Expected chances to produce the outcome: plate appearances, batters faced and innings in MLB; attempts, carries, routes and targets in NFL.
Matchup & performance
Player and team skill, opponent tendencies, recent usage, and relevant pitcher-batter or offense-defense matchups.
Game context
Lineups or inactives, starting roles, bullpen or team availability, venue, weather, pace, quarterback status and likely game script, where relevant and available.
Outcome distribution
Related game and player outcomes come from a shared model. Over, Under and push chances are evaluated from that distribution at the listed line.

Intel layer

Public intel
Source-identified news and research can add timely lineup, injury, role or game context when available. Missing or unconfirmed reports remain labeled as such.
Market intel
Line movement, betting splits and sharp-money indicators add context when available. Source, time and exact-line or broader-event scope are shown when supplied; this intel does not silently change model chance.

Reading the numbers

Projection & probability
Projection is an average in market units, not a hit probability. Model probability estimates how often this exact selection would win under the model’s assumptions; it is not a measured hit rate.
Price comparison / model edge
Model probability minus the price-required break-even probability. For example, 60% − 50% = +10% model edge. The % sign denotes a difference between probabilities—not a 10% hit chance, relative improvement or return. Known pushes or voids are accounted for where supplied.
Quote & movement
Book, line, odds and observation time identify the price being compared. Any opening-to-current movement is shown as context, not proof of value.
Playable to
For published Plays only, the worst supplied odds that still qualify at the listed line and book. Always check the current quote.

All Plays (700)

Bet and eventEventMarketPrice / bookModel EdgeBreak-evenQuote observedDetails
Arizona CardinalsArizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks · Point spread · Line 12.5Projection: +8.66 points Point spread 12.5Projected +8.66 points 9.5%Est. chance 61.8% · Needed 52.4% -110mybookieag 9.5%Est. chance 61.8% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens · Point spread · Line -10Projection: -11.12 points Point spread -10Projected -11.12 points 5.9%Est. chance 54.1% · Needed 48.2% +100lowvig 5.9%Est. chance 54.1% · Needed 48.2%Price +100 48.2%
OverBuffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings · Game total · Line 46Projection: 49.82 points Game total 46Projected 49.82 points 9.6%Est. chance 58.4% · Needed 48.8% -102lowvig 9.6%Est. chance 58.4% · Needed 48.8%Price -102 48.8%
UnderDenver Broncos at Carolina Panthers · Game total · Line 43.5Projection: 41.59 points Game total 43.5Projected 41.59 points 11.7%Est. chance 62.2% · Needed 50.5% -102lowvig 11.7%Est. chance 62.2% · Needed 50.5%Price -102 50.5%
Miami DolphinsDetroit Lions at Miami Dolphins · Point spread · Line 7Projection: +3.04 points Point spread 7Projected +3.04 points 7.5%Est. chance 57.4% · Needed 49.9% -105lowvig 7.5%Est. chance 57.4% · Needed 49.9%Price -105 49.9%
UnderArizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks · Game total · Line 41.5Projection: 37.46 points Game total 41.5Projected 37.46 points 24.1%Est. chance 75.8% · Needed 51.7% -107lowvig 24.1%Est. chance 75.8% · Needed 51.7%Price -107 51.7%
Dallas CowboysDallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 9.9%Est. chance 78.9% · Needed 69.1% -243lowvigHeavy juice 9.9%Est. chance 78.9% · Needed 69.1%Price -243Heavy juice 69.1%
New England PatriotsGreen Bay Packers at New England Patriots · Point spread · Line -3Projection: -4.82 points Point spread -3Projected -4.82 points 5.0%Est. chance 55.7% · Needed 50.7% -110mybookieag 5.0%Est. chance 55.7% · Needed 50.7%Price -110 50.7%
Houston TexansHouston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers · Point spread · Line -4.5Projection: -7.51 points Point spread -4.5Projected -7.51 points 9.6%Est. chance 62.0% · Needed 52.4% -110betus 9.6%Est. chance 62.0% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
New York JetsNew York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 10.7%Est. chance 29.3% · Needed 18.5% +425DraftKings 10.7%Est. chance 29.3% · Needed 18.5%Price +425 18.5%
Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles · Point spread · Line 3Projection: -0.69 points Point spread 3Projected -0.69 points 10.8%Est. chance 58.0% · Needed 47.2% +106lowvig 10.8%Est. chance 58.0% · Needed 47.2%Price +106 47.2%
Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders · Point spread · Line -6Projection: -6.37 points Point spread -6Projected -6.37 points 3.0%Est. chance 49.9% · Needed 46.9% +105lowvig 3.0%Est. chance 49.9% · Needed 46.9%Price +105 46.9%
New Orleans SaintsCleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 9.9%Est. chance 69.7% · Needed 59.9% -158FanDuel 9.9%Est. chance 69.7% · Needed 59.9%Price -158 59.9%
New York JetsNew York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs · Point spread · Line 10Projection: +5.97 points Point spread 10Projected +5.97 points 8.3%Est. chance 59.0% · Needed 50.7% -110lowvig 8.3%Est. chance 59.0% · Needed 50.7%Price -110 50.7%
San Francisco 49ersLas Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers · Point spread · Line -10Projection: -13.18 points Point spread -10Projected -13.18 points 10.1%Est. chance 59.6% · Needed 49.4% -104lowvig 10.1%Est. chance 59.6% · Needed 49.4%Price -104 49.4%
Dallas CowboysDallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts · Point spread · Line -5.5Projection: -8.69 points Point spread -5.5Projected -8.69 points 10.1%Est. chance 62.3% · Needed 52.2% -109lowvig 10.1%Est. chance 62.3% · Needed 52.2%Price -109 52.2%
Cincinnati BengalsCincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons · Point spread · Line -3Projection: -5.29 points Point spread -3Projected -5.29 points 6.1%Est. chance 56.8% · Needed 50.7% -110mybookieag 6.1%Est. chance 56.8% · Needed 50.7%Price -110 50.7%
New England PatriotsGreen Bay Packers at New England Patriots · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 5.2%Est. chance 64.8% · Needed 59.6% -158FanDuel 5.2%Est. chance 64.8% · Needed 59.6%Price -158 59.6%
OverDetroit Lions at Miami Dolphins · Game total · Line 50.5Projection: 54.76 points Game total 50.5Projected 54.76 points 13.2%Est. chance 64.4% · Needed 51.2% -105FanDuel 13.2%Est. chance 64.4% · Needed 51.2%Price -105 51.2%
Miami DolphinsDetroit Lions at Miami Dolphins · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 14.2%Est. chance 39.3% · Needed 25.0% +290FanDuel 14.2%Est. chance 39.3% · Needed 25.0%Price +290 25.0%
New Orleans SaintsCleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints · Point spread · Line -3Projection: -6.34 points Point spread -3Projected -6.34 points 12.1%Est. chance 62.0% · Needed 49.9% -106betrivers 12.1%Est. chance 62.0% · Needed 49.9%Price -106 49.9%
Chicago BearsTampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears · Point spread · Line -6Projection: -6.96 points Point spread -6Projected -6.96 points 2.7%Est. chance 52.5% · Needed 49.8% -107lowvig 2.7%Est. chance 52.5% · Needed 49.8%Price -107 49.8%
Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 13.3%Est. chance 51.2% · Needed 37.9% +157lowvig 13.3%Est. chance 51.2% · Needed 37.9%Price +157 37.9%
Houston TexansHouston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers · Moneyline · Line Not suppliedProjection: Not available Moneyline Not suppliedProjected Not available 6.6%Est. chance 73.1% · Needed 66.6% -215lowvigHeavy juice 6.6%Est. chance 73.1% · Needed 66.6%Price -215Heavy juice 66.6%