MLB Plays

Today’s MLB Plays

Updated Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

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How our signals work

Inputs vary by sport and market. Model estimates and additional intel are shown separately.

MLB Top Plays require at least 6% estimated return at the observed price; other Plays require at least 2.5%. No-HR, HR, first-inning, alternate-line and other high-volatility props are excluded from Top Plays. These are model estimates, not guarantees. Player status and exact book/line context remain in Details.

Core model signals

Opportunity & role: Expected chances to produce the outcome: plate appearances, batters faced and innings in MLB; attempts, carries, routes and targets in NFL.
Matchup & performance: Player and team skill, opponent tendencies, recent usage, and relevant pitcher-batter or offense-defense matchups.
Game context: Lineups or inactives, starting roles, bullpen or team availability, venue, weather, pace, quarterback status and likely game script, where relevant and available.
Outcome distribution: Related game and player outcomes come from a shared model. Over, Under and push chances are evaluated from that distribution at the listed line.

Intel layer

Public intel: Source-identified news and research can add timely lineup, injury, role or game context when available. Missing or unconfirmed reports remain labeled as such.
Market intel: Line movement, betting splits and sharp-money indicators add context when available. Source, time and exact-line or broader-event scope are shown when supplied; this intel does not silently change model chance.

Reading the numbers

Projection & probability: Projection is an average in market units, not a hit probability. Model probability estimates how often this exact selection would win under the model’s assumptions; it is not a measured hit rate.
Price comparison / model edge: Model probability minus the price-required break-even probability. For example, 60% − 50% = +10% model edge. The % sign denotes a difference between probabilities—not a 10% hit chance, relative improvement or return. Known pushes or voids are accounted for where supplied.
Quote & movement: Book, line, odds and observation time identify the price being compared. Any opening-to-current movement is shown as context, not proof of value.
Playable to: For published Plays only, the worst supplied odds that still qualify at the listed line and book. Always check the current quote.

Plays (232)

Bet and eventEvent	Market			Price / book	Model Edge	Break-even	Quote observed
Jonny Deluca OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Jonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.93 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.93 hits	2.8%Est. chance 64.5% · Needed 61.7%	-161DraftKings	2.8%Est. chance 64.5% · Needed 61.7%Price -161	61.7%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jonathan Aranda OVERJonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.86 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.86 hits	2.8%Est. chance 60.6% · Needed 57.8%	-137DraftKings	2.8%Est. chance 60.6% · Needed 57.8%Price -137	57.8%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ryan Vilade OVER Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 1 games. Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.66 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.66 hits	4.5%Est. chance 50.3% · Needed 45.9%	+118DraftKings	4.5%Est. chance 50.3% · Needed 45.9%Price +118	45.9%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Liam Hicks OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Liam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.85 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.85 hits	2.7%Est. chance 60.5% · Needed 57.8%	-137DraftKings	2.7%Est. chance 60.5% · Needed 57.8%Price -137	57.8%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Taylor Walls OVERTaylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.69 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.69 hits	10.2%Est. chance 52.6% · Needed 42.4%	+136DraftKings	10.2%Est. chance 52.6% · Needed 42.4%Price +136	42.4%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Brice Turang OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Brice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.97 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.97 hits	1.7%Est. chance 65.6% · Needed 63.9%	-177DraftKings	1.7%Est. chance 65.6% · Needed 63.9%Price -177	63.9%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Junior Caminero OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Junior Caminero · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.95 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.95 hits	2.1%Est. chance 64.8% · Needed 62.7%	-168DraftKings	2.1%Est. chance 64.8% · Needed 62.7%Price -168	62.7%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Garrett Mitchell OVERGarrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits · Line 0.5Projection: 0.86 hits	Batter Hits	0.5Projected 0.86 hits	4.3%Est. chance 60.3% · Needed 55.9%	-127DraftKings	4.3%Est. chance 60.3% · Needed 55.9%Price -127	55.9%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ryan Vilade OVER Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 1 games. Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	16.5%Est. chance 66.5% · Needed 50.0%	+100DraftKings	16.5%Est. chance 66.5% · Needed 50.0%Price +100	50.0%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Victor Mesa Jr. OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Victor Mesa Jr. · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	3.2%Est. chance 63.2% · Needed 60.0%	-150BetOnline	3.2%Est. chance 63.2% · Needed 60.0%Price -150	60.0%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Liam Hicks OVERLiam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs	11.8%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 63.0%	-170DraftKings	11.8%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 63.0%Price -170	63.0%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Sal Frelick UNDER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Sal Frelick · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 1.5Projection: 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	1.5Projected 1.3 hits + runs + RBIs	1.6%Est. chance 64.7% · Needed 63.1%	-171DraftKings	1.6%Est. chance 64.7% · Needed 63.1%Price -171	63.1%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Taylor Walls OVERTaylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.1 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.1 hits + runs + RBIs	19.2%Est. chance 67.2% · Needed 48.1%	+108DraftKings	19.2%Est. chance 67.2% · Needed 48.1%Price +108	48.1%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Garrett Mitchell OVERGarrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.4 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.4 hits + runs + RBIs	13.0%Est. chance 74.1% · Needed 61.1%	-157DraftKings	13.0%Est. chance 74.1% · Needed 61.1%Price -157	61.1%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ben Williamson OVER Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 4 games. More to consider (1) The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Ben Williamson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.2 hits + runs + RBIs	7.6%Est. chance 70.5% · Needed 63.0%	-170DraftKings	7.6%Est. chance 70.5% · Needed 63.0%Price -170	63.0%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
David Hamilton OVERDavid Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1 hits + runs + RBIs	6.0%Est. chance 63.6% · Needed 57.6%	-136DraftKings	6.0%Est. chance 63.6% · Needed 57.6%Price -136	57.6%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jonathan Aranda OVERJonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Hits Runs Rbis · Line 0.5Projection: 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs	Batter Hits Runs Rbis	0.5Projected 1.6 hits + runs + RBIs	12.1%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 62.7%	-168DraftKings	12.1%Est. chance 74.8% · Needed 62.7%Price -168	62.7%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jonny Deluca OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Jonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.5 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.5 total bases	3.7%Est. chance 64.5% · Needed 60.8%	-155BetMGM	3.7%Est. chance 64.5% · Needed 60.8%Price -155	60.8%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Cooper Pratt OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.2 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.2 total bases	4.2%Est. chance 64.2% · Needed 60.0%	-150BetMGM	4.2%Est. chance 64.2% · Needed 60.0%Price -150	60.0%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Taylor Walls OVERTaylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 0.9 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 0.9 total bases	9.1%Est. chance 52.6% · Needed 43.5%	+130BetMGM	9.1%Est. chance 52.6% · Needed 43.5%Price +130	43.5%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jake Bauers OVERJake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.5 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.5 total bases	5.9%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 55.6%	-125BetMGM	5.9%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 55.6%Price -125	55.6%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Brice Turang OVER Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Brice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.7 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.7 total bases	2.0%Est. chance 65.6% · Needed 63.6%	-175BetMGM	2.0%Est. chance 65.6% · Needed 63.6%Price -175	63.6%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ryan Vilade OVER Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 1 games. Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.1 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.1 total bases	4.9%Est. chance 50.3% · Needed 45.5%	+120BetMGM	4.9%Est. chance 50.3% · Needed 45.5%Price +120	45.5%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Garrett Mitchell OVERGarrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETBatter Total Bases · Line 0.5Projection: 1.4 total bases	Batter Total Bases	0.5Projected 1.4 total bases	2.8%Est. chance 60.3% · Needed 57.4%	-135BetMGM	2.8%Est. chance 60.3% · Needed 57.4%Price -135	57.4%	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

How home run markets work

No Home Run looks at the chance that neither team homers. Home Run Probability looks at a named hitter going deep.

We consider the projected lineup and starters, player power and contact, pitching, venue and available game conditions.
A priced line can show a model-versus-price difference. An unpriced outlook shows only the model estimate, not an edge.
Lineups, pitching assignments and sportsbook prices can change; check Details and the current market before deciding.

No Home Run

Selection and eventEvent	Model chanceModel chance	Details
No home run in gameMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	27.0%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT No home run in game Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 27.0% Price Price unavailable Game context Both batting orders are included. Starting pitcher inputs are included; confirm identities. Ballpark Tropicana Field Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski · Probable Milwaukee Brewers lineup Top 3: Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen · Probable Tampa Bay Rays lineup Top 3: Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero Weather Unavailable

Home Run Probability

Selection and eventEvent	Market	Line	Selection	Projection	Model edge	Market price	Model edgeModel Edge	Book	Quote observed
Cooper Pratt Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.04 home runs	-3.9%	+1200	-3.9%Price +1200	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
William Contreras Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. William Contreras · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.11 home runs	-5.5%	+525	-5.5%Price +525	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Christian Yelich Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Christian Yelich · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.1 home runs	-1.3%	+800	-1.3%Price +800	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jonathan ArandaJonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.13 home runs	1.9%	+900	1.9%Price +900	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Chandler Simpson Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Chandler Simpson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0 home runs	-4.7%	+2000	-4.7%Price +2000	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Liam HicksLiam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.12 home runs	3.2%	+1100	3.2%Price +1100	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ryan Vilade Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 1 games. Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.12 home runs	2.5%	+1000	2.5%Price +1000	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ben Williamson Caution Limited recent starting-role history: 4 games. More to consider (1) The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Ben Williamson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.04 home runs	-1.9%	+1600	-1.9%Price +1600	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Sal Frelick Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Sal Frelick · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.04 home runs	-3.7%	+1200	-3.7%Price +1200	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Brice TurangBrice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.13 home runs	2.7%	+900	2.7%Price +900	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jake Bauers Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Jake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.17 home runs	-0.4%	+525	-0.4%Price +525	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jonny DelucaJonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.12 home runs	3.1%	+1100	3.1%Price +1100	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Jackson Chourio Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Jackson Chourio · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.15 home runs	-3.7%	+475	-3.7%Price +475	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Taylor Walls Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Taylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.02 home runs	-4.1%	+1600	-4.1%Price +1600	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Junior Caminero Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Junior Caminero · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.24 home runs	3.7%	+450	3.7%Price +450	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Garrett Mitchell Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Garrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.08 home runs	-0.5%	+1100	-0.5%Price +1100	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
David Hamilton Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. David Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.04 home runs	-4.3%	+1200	-4.3%Price +1200	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Yandy Diaz Caution The estimated advantage disappears in a plausible workload scenario. Yandy Diaz · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ETOVER · Line 0.5	Home run	0.5	OVER	0.12 home runs	0.0%	+800	0.0%Price +800	espnbet	Oct 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Selection and eventEvent	Model chanceModel chance	Details
Ben WilliamsonMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	4.0%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Ben Williamson Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 4.0% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Brice TurangMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	12.7%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 12.7% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Chandler SimpsonMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	0.1%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Chandler Simpson Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 0.1% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Christian YelichMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	9.8%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 9.8% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Cooper PrattMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	3.8%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Cooper Pratt Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 3.8% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
David HamiltonMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	3.4%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT David Hamilton Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 3.4% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Garrett MitchellMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	7.8%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Garrett Mitchell Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 7.8% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	13.7%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Jackson Chourio Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 13.7% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	15.6%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Jake Bauers Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 15.6% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Jonathan ArandaMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	11.9%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Jonathan Aranda Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 11.9% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Jonny DelucaMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	11.5%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Jonny Deluca Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 11.5% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Junior CamineroMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	21.9%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Junior Caminero Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 21.9% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Liam HicksMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	11.6%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Liam Hicks Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 11.6% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Ryan ViladeMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	11.6%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Ryan Vilade Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 11.6% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Sal FrelickMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	4.0%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Sal Frelick Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 4.0% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Taylor WallsMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	1.8%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Taylor Walls Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 1.8% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
William ContrerasMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	10.5%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 10.5% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting-order position is included in the estimate.
Yandy DiazMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET	11.2%
MLB · GAME SNAPSHOT Yandy Diaz Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Oct 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET Model chance 11.2% Price Price unavailable Game context Batting order is not confirmed; plate appearances are projected.

More MLB markets

No plays are showing for these markets right now. We’ll add them when current lines and game details are ready.

Batter StrikeoutsNo plays available No current sportsbook line matched this market. Check back as lines update.
No home runNo plays available No current sportsbook line matched this market. Check back as lines update.

Model-estimated probability: -.

Understanding probability

25% means the model estimates about 1 in 4 comparable games under its stated playing and workload assumptions—not that this player has a proven 25% historical hit rate. A scoreless streak does not make a player due. Estimates can be wrong, especially with limited usage history.

Supporting Signals

Signals behind this Play

Price Signals

Books and lines observed

These are the books that returned this selection in our configured coverage, not every sportsbook.
Only quotes at the displayed line are directly comparable; prices and availability can change.

Sportsbook	Line	Odds	Observed

Ben Williamson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Brice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Chandler Simpson · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Christian Yelich · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
David Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Garrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Jackson Chourio · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Jacob Misiorowski · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Jake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Jonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Liam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Richie Palacios · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Sal Frelick · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Victor Mesa Jr. · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
William Contreras · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Diaz · Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Ben Williamson · Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang · Milwaukee Brewers
Chandler Simpson · Milwaukee Brewers
Christian Yelich · Milwaukee Brewers
Cooper Pratt · Milwaukee Brewers
David Hamilton · Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Rasmussen · Milwaukee Brewers
Garrett Mitchell · Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio · Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski · Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Bauers · Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Aranda · Milwaukee Brewers
Jonny Deluca · Milwaukee Brewers
Junior Caminero · Milwaukee Brewers
Liam Hicks · Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Richie Palacios · Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Vilade · Milwaukee Brewers
Sal Frelick · Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Walls · Milwaukee Brewers
Victor Mesa Jr. · Milwaukee Brewers
William Contreras · Milwaukee Brewers
Yandy Diaz · Milwaukee Brewers

Today’s MLB Plays

Core model signals

Intel layer

Reading the numbers

Plays (232)

No Home Run

No home run in game

Model chance

Price

Game context

Ballpark

Milwaukee Brewers starter

Milwaukee Brewers lineup

Tampa Bay Rays starter

Tampa Bay Rays lineup

Weather

Home Run Probability

Ben Williamson

Model chance

Price

Game context

Brice Turang

Model chance

Price

Game context

Chandler Simpson

Model chance

Price

Game context

Christian Yelich

Model chance

Price

Game context

Cooper Pratt

Model chance

Price

Game context

David Hamilton

Model chance

Price

Game context

Garrett Mitchell

Model chance

Price

Game context

Jackson Chourio

Model chance

Price

Game context

Jake Bauers

Model chance

Price

Game context

Jonathan Aranda

Model chance

Price

Game context

Jonny Deluca

Model chance

Price

Game context

Junior Caminero

Model chance

Price

Game context

Liam Hicks

Model chance

Price

Game context

Ryan Vilade

Model chance

Price

Game context

Sal Frelick

Model chance

Price

Game context

Taylor Walls

Model chance

Price