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Today’s CFB Plays

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3228 analyzed bets.

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How our signals work

CFB Plays have positive model-estimated return at the recorded price. Top Plays require at least 2.5 percentage points of model edge and a recommendation score of at least 5 points, including at most ±2 points of sourced betting-split confirmation. Model edge and probability stay unchanged. Estimates are not proven profits; weather uncertainty is shown separately.

Inputs vary by sport and market. Model estimates and additional intel are shown separately.

CFB covers only full-game spreads, moneylines and totals. These are model estimates, not guarantees. Player status and exact book/line context remain in Details.

Core model signals

Opportunity & role
Expected chances to produce the outcome: plate appearances, batters faced and innings in MLB; attempts, carries, routes and targets in NFL.
Matchup & performance
Player and team skill, opponent tendencies, recent usage, and relevant pitcher-batter or offense-defense matchups.
Game context
Lineups or inactives, starting roles, bullpen or team availability, venue, weather, pace, quarterback status and likely game script, where relevant and available.
Outcome distribution
Related game and player outcomes come from a shared model. Over, Under and push chances are evaluated from that distribution at the listed line.

Intel layer

Public intel
Source-identified news and research can add timely lineup, injury, role or game context when available. Missing or unconfirmed reports remain labeled as such.
Market intel
Line movement, betting splits and sharp-money indicators add context when available. Source, time and exact-line or broader-event scope are shown when supplied; this intel does not silently change model chance.

Reading the numbers

Projection & probability
Projection is an average in market units, not a hit probability. Model probability estimates how often this exact selection would win under the model’s assumptions; it is not a measured hit rate.
Price comparison / model edge
Model probability minus the price-required break-even probability. For example, 60% − 50% = +10% model edge. The % sign denotes a difference between probabilities—not a 10% hit chance, relative improvement or return. Known pushes or voids are accounted for where supplied.
Quote & movement
Book, line, odds and observation time identify the price being compared. Any opening-to-current movement is shown as context, not proof of value.
Playable to
For published Plays only, the worst supplied odds that still qualify at the listed line and book. Always check the current quote.

Plays (3228)

Bet and eventEventMarketPrice / bookModel EdgeBreak-evenQuote observedDetails
Under 50.5Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers · Game Total · Line 50.5Projection: 46.6 points Game Total 50.5Projected 46.6 points 11.4%Est. chance 63.3% · Needed 51.9% -108BetRivers 11.4%Est. chance 63.3% · Needed 51.9%Price -108 51.9%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -7.5Old Dominion Monarchs at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers · Game Spread · Line -7.5Projection: -10.7 points Game Spread -7.5Projected -10.7 points 10.1%Est. chance 60.1% · Needed 50.0% +100FanDuel 10.1%Est. chance 60.1% · Needed 50.0%Price +100 50.0%
Miami Hurricanes MLMiami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Game MoneylineProjection: 42.6% win Game Moneyline —Projected 42.6% win 10.9%Est. chance 42.6% · Needed 31.7% +215Bovada 10.9%Est. chance 42.6% · Needed 31.7%Price +215 31.7%
Under 56.5Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Game Total · Line 56.5Projection: 52.3 points Game Total 56.5Projected 52.3 points 10.5%Est. chance 62.4% · Needed 51.9% -108Bovada 10.5%Est. chance 62.4% · Needed 51.9%Price -108 51.9%
Colorado State Rams +17Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams · Game Spread · Line 17Projection: +13.7 points Game Spread 17Projected +13.7 points 8.3%Est. chance 57.9% · Needed 49.6% -108BetMGM 8.3%Est. chance 57.9% · Needed 49.6%Price -108 49.6%
Under 72Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers · Game Total · Line 72Projection: 67.7 points Game Total 72Projected 67.7 points 9.7%Est. chance 60.8% · Needed 51.1% -110BetUS 9.7%Est. chance 60.8% · Needed 51.1%Price -110 51.1%
Under 65.5West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders · Game Total · Line 65.5Projection: 61.6 points Game Total 65.5Projected 61.6 points 9.6%Est. chance 61.5% · Needed 51.9% -108LowVig.ag 9.6%Est. chance 61.5% · Needed 51.9%Price -108 51.9%
Under 65.5Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green · Game Total · Line 65.5Projection: 61.7 points Game Total 65.5Projected 61.7 points 9.1%Est. chance 61.5% · Needed 52.4% -110FanDuel 9.1%Est. chance 61.5% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
Under 55.5Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers · Game Total · Line 55.5Projection: 52.4 points Game Total 55.5Projected 52.4 points 9.0%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 52.4% -110BetRivers 9.0%Est. chance 61.4% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
Under 50Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers · Game Total · Line 50Projection: 46.6 points Game Total 50Projected 46.6 points 8.8%Est. chance 59.4% · Needed 50.6% -110MyBookie.ag 8.8%Est. chance 59.4% · Needed 50.6%Price -110 50.6%
Under 56.5Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels · Game Total · Line 56.5Projection: 53.3 points Game Total 56.5Projected 53.3 points 8.6%Est. chance 61.0% · Needed 52.4% -110BetOnline 8.6%Est. chance 61.0% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%
Washington Huskies MLPenn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies · Game MoneylineProjection: 64.9% win Game Moneyline —Projected 64.9% win 8.4%Est. chance 64.9% · Needed 56.5% -130Bovada 8.4%Est. chance 64.9% · Needed 56.5%Price -130 56.5%
Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves · Game Spread · Line -14.5Projection: -17.9 points Game Spread -14.5Projected -17.9 points 8.4%Est. chance 59.8% · Needed 51.5% -106LowVig.ag 8.4%Est. chance 59.8% · Needed 51.5%Price -106 51.5%
Under 56.5Virginia Tech Hokies at SMU Mustangs · Game Total · Line 56.5Projection: 52.9 points Game Total 56.5Projected 52.9 points 7.9%Est. chance 59.8% · Needed 51.9% -108LowVig.ag 7.9%Est. chance 59.8% · Needed 51.9%Price -108 51.9%
Ole Miss Rebels MLGeorgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels · Game MoneylineProjection: 45.6% win Game Moneyline —Projected 45.6% win 7.8%Est. chance 45.6% · Needed 37.9% +164BetOnline 7.8%Est. chance 45.6% · Needed 37.9%Price +164 37.9%
Purdue Boilermakers -6Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers · Game Spread · Line -6Projection: -9.9 points Game Spread -6Projected -9.9 points 6.8%Est. chance 56.2% · Needed 49.4% -105BetUS 6.8%Est. chance 56.2% · Needed 49.4%Price -105 49.4%
Over 51.5Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack · Game Total · Line 51.5Projection: 56.2 points Game Total 51.5Projected 56.2 points 7.6%Est. chance 59.3% · Needed 51.7% -107BetRivers 7.6%Est. chance 59.3% · Needed 51.7%Price -107 51.7%
Cincinnati Bearcats MLCincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars · Game MoneylineProjection: 29.3% win Game Moneyline —Projected 29.3% win 7.6%Est. chance 29.3% · Needed 21.7% +360BetRivers 7.6%Est. chance 29.3% · Needed 21.7%Price +360 21.7%
Arizona Wildcats -9TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona Wildcats · Game Spread · Line -9Projection: -11.6 points Game Spread -9Projected -11.6 points 6.9%Est. chance 54.7% · Needed 47.8% -101LowVig.ag 6.9%Est. chance 54.7% · Needed 47.8%Price -101 47.8%
Under 62.5Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars · Game Total · Line 62.5Projection: 59.7 points Game Total 62.5Projected 59.7 points 7.5%Est. chance 58.7% · Needed 51.2% -105FanDuel 7.5%Est. chance 58.7% · Needed 51.2%Price -105 51.2%
Under 58.5South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns · Game Total · Line 58.5Projection: 53.8 points Game Total 58.5Projected 53.8 points 7.3%Est. chance 61.9% · Needed 54.5% -120BetRivers 7.3%Est. chance 61.9% · Needed 54.5%Price -120 54.5%
Under 57.5James Madison Dukes at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles · Game Total · Line 57.5Projection: 56.9 points Game Total 57.5Projected 56.9 points 7.3%Est. chance 59.2% · Needed 51.9% -108BetMGM 7.3%Est. chance 59.2% · Needed 51.9%Price -108 51.9%
Washington Huskies -3Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies · Game Spread · Line -3Projection: -6.0 points Game Spread -3Projected -6.0 points 6.9%Est. chance 55.0% · Needed 48.1% -101LowVig.ag 6.9%Est. chance 55.0% · Needed 48.1%Price -101 48.1%
Over 49.5
Caution

A different personnel setup could erase this play’s edge at the listed line and price.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at UTEP Miners · Game Total · Line 49.5Projection: 52.9 points		 Game Total 49.5Projected 52.9 points 6.6%Est. chance 59.0% · Needed 52.4% -110BetRivers 6.6%Est. chance 59.0% · Needed 52.4%Price -110 52.4%